MLB · Jul 16, 2026 · Run Line

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Pick

MLBNew York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies on Jul 16, 2026. Below: PickWise's model pick, the full odds board (moneyline, run line and over/under) with both sides and implied probabilities, the model's confidence, and — once the game settles — the graded result. Every line is real; nothing is invented. Team pages: New York Mets · Philadelphia Phillies.

WONFinal New York Mets 4–1 Philadelphia Phillies+1.58u

The Pick

MODEL PICK
Model confidence 62%
New York Mets -1.5158

Confidence is our model's conviction rating (55–75 scale) — 62% here signals a modest lean versus the market price. It is not a guaranteed win probability.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds

The full market — every bet type, both sides, with real prices and implied win probabilities.

Moneyline

New York Mets+10649% impl.
Philadelphia Phillies-12455% impl.

Run Line

New York Mets -1.5+15839% impl.
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5-19266% impl.

Total (Over/Under) — 9.5

Over 9.5-11854% impl.
Under 9.5-10451% impl.

The Analysis

The market is pricing the Mets as modest road favorites on the moneyline at +106, yet the runline offers +158 on them covering -1.5. This creates a scenario where we're getting plus-money on the favorite to win by multiple runs while only laying juice to take them straight up, suggesting the market expects a competitive game but may be undervaluing the Mets' win margin potential. The implied probability gap between the moneyline and runline here provides value on the road favorite's ability to win decisively.

💡 Tip: Standard 1-unit play; shop for the best plus-money on Mets -1.5, as runline odds can vary significantly across books.

FAQ

Who is favored in New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies?
Philadelphia Phillies is the market favorite at -124 (55% implied) for this MLB game on Jul 16, 2026.
What is the over/under for New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies?
The market total is 9.5: Over 9.5 at -118, Under 9.5 at -104.
What is PickWise's pick for New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies?
PickWise's model has New York Mets -1.5 (158) on the Run Line, at 62% model confidence. The pick won.

New to this market? Read our MLB Run Line Betting Guide.

← Today's MLB slateNew York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies history →New York Mets hub →Philadelphia Phillies hub →Track record →

⚠️ Model-generated analysis for entertainment purposes only. Odds shown are the market line at publish time; lines move. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 21+ · Please gamble responsibly · 1-800-GAMBLER.