MLB — Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees on Jul 21, 2026. Below: PickWise's model pick, the full odds board (moneyline, run line and over/under) with both sides and implied probabilities, the model's confidence, and — once the game settles — the graded result. Every line is real; nothing is invented. Team pages: Pittsburgh Pirates · New York Yankees.
Confidence is our model's conviction rating (55–75 scale) — 62% here signals a modest lean versus the market price. It is not a guaranteed win probability.
The full market — every bet type, both sides, with real prices and implied win probabilities.
The market is pricing the Yankees as moderate favorites at -148 on the moneyline, implying roughly 60% win probability, yet the runline is priced heavily toward Pittsburgh at -164 juice. This reverse line movement—where the underdog runline commands significant premium while the moneyline remains modest—suggests the market expects a competitive game likely decided by one run. The Pirates at +1.5 with -164 juice represents strong implied value when the moneyline sits at only +126, indicating sharp money anticipates the dog to cover even if they lose outright.
New to this market? Read our MLB Run Line Betting Guide.
⚠️ Model-generated analysis for entertainment purposes only. Odds shown are the market line at publish time; lines move. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 21+ · Please gamble responsibly · 1-800-GAMBLER.